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Source Attribution of a Forensic DNA Profile Table 1

July 2000 - Volume 2 - Number 3

Source Attribution of a Forensic DNA Profile

Table 1

Random Match Probability Thresholds for Source Attribution at Various Population Sizes and Confidence Levels

Sample Size (N)	Confidence Levels
Sample Size (N)	0.90	0.95	0.99	0.999
2	5.1 × 10-2	2.5 × 10-2	5.0 × 10-3	5.0 × 10-4
3	3.5 × 10-2	1.7 × 10-2	3.3 × 10-3	3.3 × 10-4
4	2.6 × 10-2	1.3 × 10-2	2.5 × 10-3	2.5 × 10-4
5	2.1 × 10-2	1.0 × 10-2	2.0 × 10-3	2.0 × 10-4
6	1.7 × 10-2	8.5 × 10-3	1.7 × 10-3	1.7 × 10-4
7	1.5 × 10-2	7.3 × 10-3	1.4 × 10-3	1.4 × 10-4
8	1.3 × 10-2	6.4 × 10-3	1.3 × 10-3	1.3 × 10-4
9	1.2 × 10-2	5.7 × 10-3	1.1 × 10-3	1.1 × 10-4
10	1.1 × 10-2	5.1 × 10-3	1.0 × 10-3	1.0 × 10-4
25	4.2 × 10-3	2.1 × 10-3	4.0 × 10-4	4.0 × 10-5
50	2.1 × 10-3	1.0 × 10-3	2.0 × 10-4	2.0 × 10-5
100	1.1 × 10-3	5.1 × 10-4	1.0 × 10-4	1.0 × 10-5
1 × 103	1.1 × 10-4	5.1 × 10-5	1.0 × 10-5	1.0 × 10-6
1 × 105	1.1 × 10-6	5.1 × 10-7	1.0 × 10-7	1.0 × 10-8
1 × 106	1.1 × 10-7	5.1 × 10-8	1.0 × 10-8	1.0 × 10-9
1 × 107	1.1 × 10-8	5.1 × 10-9	1.0 × 10-9	1.0 × 10-10
5 × 107	2.1 × 10-9	1.0 × 10-9	2.0 × 10-10	2.0 × 10-11
2.6 × 108	4.1 × 10-10	2.0 × 10-10	3.9 × 10-11	3.9 × 10-12
1 × 109	1.1 × 10-10	5.1 × 10-11	1.0 × 10-11	1.0 × 10-12
5 × 109	2.1 × 10-11	1.0 × 10-11	2.0 × 10-12	2.0 × 10-13

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